Here’s a breakdown of the shifts we might see as votes are counted in six battleground states
The 2020 election taught us an important lesson: the first results you see after the polls close on Election Night can be very different than the final outcome once all the votes are tallied, a process that can stretch on for days.In some states, Republicans jumped out to an early lead in 2020, only to get swamped as Democratic-leaning mail ballots were counted, a phenomenon dubbed the “blue shift” or “red mirage.” But in other states, Republicans gained as the vote-count filled in over several days, buoyed by redder batches of votes.These shifts are bound to happen again Tuesday, as results trickle in from key midterm races.This happens because of varying state-by-state rules for how people can vote, how and when election officials tally the votes, and how often new results are posted. It’s also exacerbated by recent trends in voter preferences, with Democrats much more likely to vote-by-mail or use ballot dropboxes, while Republicans disproportionally favor going to the polls in-person on Election Day.These quirks of the US election system are normal and somewhat predictable. And they aren’t indicative of fraud or wrongdoing, despite what many prominent Republicans have falsely claimed.When more people vote-by-mail or vote early, these “shifts” or “mirages” can become even more exaggerated. And this year has already seen tens of millions of ballots cast before Election Day.Here’s a breakdown of the shifts we might see in six battleground states – featuring critical races that will decide Senate control. President Joe Biden flipped five of these six states in 2020, and they all saw prolonged vote-counts. But a note of caution: Nothing is set in stone.These aren’t predictions, they’re guideposts.